Jalali: Empower the Population

AUAF launched its second lecture series with guest lecturer Professor Ali Ahmad Jalali, who said that the future of the country lies in ensuring ordinary Afghans are able to affect change.

The lecture, titled “Afghanistan: Building the Future,” provided a personal assessment on Afghanistan’s progress and suggestions for future policy direction. Jalali, a Distinguished Professor at the Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies of the National Defense University, is a former Minister of the Interior and has been tipped as a candidate for president.

Practical Decisions

The lecture offered insight on the current political and security situation in the country. In the southern provinces of Afghanistan where the insurgency is strongest, ordinary Afghans are forced to make difficult decisions about their allegiances. “We talk about winning hearts and minds,” he points out. “But there are hearts, and there are minds. In many areas, hearts are with the government, but minds have to make practical decisions.”

“We must change the environment,” he suggests. Much of the population is under the age of 20; they will need jobs and opportunity. Educating and empowering youth must be a priority.

Jalali is convinced that ordinary Afghans would choose to support the government, if free to make such a decision. “In general, people do not see the Taliban as part of the political process,” he says “But they don’t live in an atmosphere where they can stand up to them.”

Missed Opportunities

Echoing other ranking Bonn-era officials, Jalali says that the opportunity to incorporate moderate Taliban into the political process was missed in 2001, when the country emerged from five years under Taliban rule.

The resulting Taliban resurgence has proved difficult to undo. Mobilizing tribes against insurgents, as some have suggested, is a tricky strategy that could easily backfire. “Tribal capacity works in support of the government only if the government is on the winning side,” he says.  “We must be careful with arming tribes. Mobilizing communities might be done on a case-by-case basis.”

A Vision for the Future

Taking stock of current challenges, he notes: “there is no solid line between conflict and post-conflict.” In other words, there are bound to be difficulties and setbacks in building sustainable peace.

“Numbers of elections alone cannot bring stability to Afghanistan,” says Jalali. The 2005 election, which was hailed as a success by observers, and upcoming elections in 2009 cannot be used as the only measuring stick for progress. Rather, reconciliation must be substantive, and political allies must adhere to a comprehensive plan in order to build a stable future.

“But what is the vision of the future? “Is it the vision of Afghanistan in the [2004] Constitution? Is it the ANDS [Afghanistan National Development Strategy]? There is a tendency to impose peace in Afghanistan militarily. This will not work.”

Speaking of the much-touted ‘mini-surge,’ contemplated by Afghanistan’s allies, he said “Additional troops will have no effect unless there is a strategy behind them.”

He outlined a number of measures, including devolution of management to the provinces and flexibility in incorporating Taliban into the political process.

Despite prompting from the audience, he did not say what his role in those future measures might be.